The simplest charts often tell the most. Right now, Bitcoin’s chart looks like something out of “Technical Analysis 101.”

It’s leaning slightly bearish. The sideways trend is dipping downward, hinting that despite the high volatility, Bitcoin’s price has a subtle downward tendency. While it’s not a major shift, down is still not up.

The range of this trend is wide, which signals uncertainty. A larger range suggests the price is being influenced by indecision, noise, or volatility. Earlier, the price was more stable, but now there’s a clear polarization between bulls and bears, leading to large swings.

So, what’s next?

Interestingly, it takes about five attempts on average to break out, and we’re now at attempt number five. While statistically, this doesn’t guarantee anything, it’s still something to take note of. Remember, the breakout could go either way—up or down.

For swing traders, this kind of volatility can be an opportunity. But personally, I find it risky to trade in such trends, as a sudden reversal can catch you off guard.

Here are three things to watch:

1. A breakout above the resistance line: This could signal a major upward move, potentially also affecting gold, especially if geopolitical tensions are involved.
2. A breakdown through the lower channel: This would confirm the arrival of a “crypto winter.”
3. A drop in volatility: If volatility drops to pre-trend levels, it may signal the end of this trend. A return to stable price movement would suggest the market is content, and any sharp move after that could indicate the new long-term direction—whether it’s $100,000 or a prolonged bear market.

This isn’t a 50/50 scenario. Once the trend starts moving, there will likely be time to act, as it won’t be an overnight shift that catches everyone off guard.

A lot may depend on the upcoming election. If Trump gains momentum, it could boost crypto. On the other hand, a Harris win might weigh on the market, given the U.S. government’s critical stance on crypto, particularly among Democrats. Trump, in contrast, has shown some support for crypto, even launching his own NFTs.

However, what could really drive Bitcoin higher isn’t just the U.S. election. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East could push more flight capital into Bitcoin, with large sums heading into crypto during any potential crisis. If Bitcoin’s price spikes, consider it a “heads up.”