In a sweeping assessment of global security challenges, the US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) has identified Pakistan’s nuclear modernization efforts and its deepening military ties with China as key concerns in its Worldwide Threat Assessment Report for 2025. The report also sheds light on India’s evolving defense priorities, placing China at the center of its strategic calculations.

India’s Strategic Focus: China First, Pakistan Secondary

The DIA notes a shifting security dynamic in South Asia. While Pakistan continues to view India as an “existential threat,” India increasingly sees China as its main adversary—placing Pakistan in a more peripheral role. “India views China as its primary adversary and Pakistan more as an ancillary security problem to be managed,” the report states.

This strategic posture was underscored by a recent flare-up along the India-Pakistan border. In response to a late-April terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir, India launched missile strikes targeting terrorism-linked sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. What followed was a multi-day exchange of missile, drone, and artillery fire from May 7 to 10, before both sides agreed to a ceasefire.

Modernizing the Indian Military

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s defense agenda, according to the report, will likely emphasize asserting India’s leadership on the global stage, countering China’s growing influence, and strengthening the country’s military capabilities. These goals are reflected in India’s defense partnerships in the Indian Ocean region and its continued push for self-reliance under the “Made in India” initiative.

India’s military modernization was in full swing in 2024, with key developments including a test of the Agni-I Prime medium-range ballistic missile and the commissioning of a second nuclear-powered submarine—part of efforts to bolster its nuclear triad.

On the Russia front, the report notes that while India has reduced its procurement of new Russian weapons, it still depends heavily on Russian spare parts to maintain its arsenal—especially tanks and fighter jets crucial to countering threats from both China and Pakistan.

Pakistan’s WMD Push and Chinese Backing

Turning to Pakistan, the DIA outlines Islamabad’s defense priorities: managing cross-border tensions, countering domestic militant threats, and advancing its nuclear weapons program. Notably, Pakistan is pursuing battlefield nuclear weapons aimed at offsetting India’s conventional military edge.

“Pakistan is modernizing its nuclear arsenal and almost certainly procures WMD-applicable goods from foreign suppliers and intermediaries,” the report warns, adding that China is likely the primary source of these materials. In some cases, sensitive technologies are believed to be routed through third countries like Hong Kong, Singapore, Turkey, and the UAE.

The US intelligence report also highlights the strategic relationship between China and Pakistan, noting frequent joint military exercises and Beijing’s economic and military support to Islamabad. However, the partnership has faced strains—most notably after a terrorist attack in 2024 killed seven Chinese workers involved in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

Regional Flashpoints: Iran and Afghanistan

Pakistan’s regional tensions extend beyond India. The report mentions January 2024 cross-border airstrikes exchanged with Iran following terror attacks, and more recent clashes with Taliban forces along the Afghan border. In March 2025, Pakistan and Afghanistan traded artillery and airstrikes, each accusing the other of harboring militant infrastructure.

Despite ongoing challenges, both Pakistan and Iran have made efforts to ease tensions through high-level diplomatic engagements.